After the collapse of Bear Sterns (March 16), the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (September 7), the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (September 15) and the ratification of the federal bailout plan last week, it is clear to every pundit and strategist that the economy has emerged as the issue #1 in the presidential election.

This feature therefore looks at the ways in which John McCain and Barack Obama have talked about the economy itself and issues related to it (e.g. taxes, budget, deficit, health care etc.) on the campaign trail.

The data is based on an analysis of their campaign speeches from February 2007-October 5, 2008.


1. General Trends

As the charts illustrate, the issue of the economy has become progressively more important for both presidential campaigns, although Obama maintains a clear lead in terms of references to it.

When looking at the references to economy and middle class, the gap between them becomes particularly obvious after July and August 2008.

It is equally striking how consistingly low the references to middle class by John McCain are in comparison to Barack Obama.


2. Significant Phrases before and after the Crisis

An analysis of the most significant phrases in which Obama and McCain differ about their references to the economy is also revealing.

From February 2007 until August 2008, McCain, when contrasted with Obama's economic rhetoric, mostly talked about small business owners, dependence on foreign oil, health insurance and job creation.



Starting last month, his references to the economy have increased and diversified, now focussing mainly on job creation, ways to jumpstart the economy and a criticism of Wall Street.

When Obama talked about the economy from February 2007 until August 2008, he also talked about the export of U.S. jobs, health care and renewable energy. In addition, however, Obama also made references to the global competitiveness of the U.S. economy and the plight of working Americans.



Starting last month, Obama's has added a decided focus on the future of the economy (power next generation, new economy 21st) and the issue of education (provide child education, moral child education) to his economic rhetoric.

Both candidates now also draw very sharp distinctions between each other's economic policies. McCain accuses Obama of potientially destroying U.S. jobs through tax increases (raising taxes economy, kill more jobs, worst thing do).

Obama, on the other hand, portrays his opponent as out of touch with the middle class (citing McCain's statement that the fundamentals of the economy are strong) and denounces the influence of lobbyists in the past and on John McCain's economic policies (tax code lobbyists, Senator McCain economy).



3. General Collocations and Concentrations

The general collocations of the economic references in McCain and Obama's campaign speeches reconfirm this impression.

a) John McCain

When referring to the economy, John McCain has a very clear message and predominantly speaks about:

• energy costs (rising oil price, gallon gas, doubled gas cost)
• job creation and elimination (American businesses, economy, eliminate jobs)
• taxes (new taxes, raise taxes)

b) Barack Obama

Barack Obama's references to the economy, on the other hand, are far more numerous and comprehensive in terms of references to other topics, mostly circling around:

• social issues ((struggling) families, insurance, health care)
  
• the costs of the war in Iraq (war, undetermindes consequences, fighting)
• the global competitiveness of the U.S. economy ((compete in) global economy, new economy, 21st century economy)
• a domestic economic agenda (create new jobs, American trade workers, rising costs, new direction, energy)

More specifically, when connecting the war in Iraq to the current economic situation, Obama particularly stresses the uncertain length, the undeterminded consequences of the occupation as well as its high costs.



When connecting the economic situation to social issues and consequences, he predominantly talks about health care and the impact its rising costs has on families.





4. Jobs

Another stark differences between the two candidates emerges when looking at the way in which they talk about jobs.

McCain also communicates his message in this area in very clear terms: taxes prevent the creation of new jobs for for business around the country.



As the cluster below shows, the picture that Obama paints with regard to jobs, on the other hand, is far more complex. His take on the creation of new jobs is connected to:

• new industries especially in the energy sector (green jobs)
• the prevention of the export of U.S. jobs overseas (outsourced)
• the issue of health care
• concrete projects such as the rebuilding of the public infrastructure in the U.S. (roads, schools).

5. Conclusion

When looking at both candidates's rhetoric with regard to the economy and its increase over time, it becomes clear that Obama's economic references are only more comprehensive in terms of numbers but also in terms of connections to other topics such as for example, global competitiveness and education.

In the last two months before the election, both McCain and Obama have also begun to refer more often to what they see as shortcomings and negative consequences of the other candidates economic policies.

With the economy worsening and election day rapidly approaching, the remaining weeks are likely to see a further increase of economic rhetoric from the two candidates, both in terms of frequency and sharpness.