U.S. Presidential Campaign '08:
A Semantic Matrix Analysis
Analysis #8: Experience vs. Judgment, Past vs. Future?
A Linguistic Analysis of the First Presidential Debate on U.S. Foreign Policy
With the economic crisis looming in the background, Americans last night watched both presidential candidates mostly discuss foreign policy issues in their first televised debate in Oxford, Mississippi.

The following is an analysis of the words John McCain and Barack Obama used to present their political agenda and their major differences to the American public.

The buzzwords of the debate were:





1. Nouns

John McCain, significantly more than Barack Obama, used concrete terms to underline his political message, e.g. spending, control, or government. Referring to his own foreign policy and military credentials (strategy, record), McCain also emphasized the drastic, negative consequences of Obama views with regard to foreign policy (defeat, failure).

Noun Significance Level Relative Frequency Factor
spending 0.0001 4.6
control 0.001 not used by Obama
government 0.0016 5.6
friend 0.0045 10.5
strategy 0.092 3.2
defeat 0.015 8.43
failure 0.02 not used by Obama
record 0.041 3.51
veteran 0.049 6.32

Obama, by contrast, remained surprisingly vague in the usage of nouns that differed from his opponent (policy, question, term, problem, notion). At the same time, however, he frequently used the opportunity to connect foreign policy issues to the economic situation (economy, market, regulation, tax).

Noun Significance Level Relative Frequency Factor
policy 0.005 not used by McCain
question 0.005 not used by McCain
problem 0.006 4
term 0.009 not used by McCain
notion 0.009 not used by McCain
economy 0.016 4.1
market 0.029 not used by McCain
regulation 0.029 not used by McCain
tax 0.034 2.18



2. Personal Pronouns

In line with previous analyses (SEMTRACKS Analysis #5), both candidates display a very characteristic usage pf personal pronouns.

John McCain has a significantly greater usage of I and he, which focuses the attention on himself and his record while drawing a sharp contrast to his opponent.

Pronoun Significance Level Relative Frequency Factor
I 0.0015 1.43
he 0.033 1.74

Obama, on the other hand, made a far greater appeal to the collective effort with which future challenges need to be mastered through his significantly higher usage of the personal pronouns we and our.

Pronoun Significance Level Relative Frequency Factor
we 0.0003 1.46
your 0.026 4.74
our 0.027 1.55



3. Adverbs

In the area of adverbs, it is interesting to note that John McCain uses a far greater number of intensifiers (very, completely) than Barack Obama.

Adverb Significance Level Relative Frequency Factor
very 0.019 2.7
completely 0.021 5

Barack Obama rather employs adverbs signaling both disagreement (not) and agreement (absolutely) in his rhetoric.

Adverb Significance Level Relative Frequency Factor
not 0.0006 1.95
absolutely 0.001 11
right 0.002 7.1
potentially 0.016 6
actually 0.016 6




4. Significant Phrases


An analysis of the phrases most significantly used by both candidates in the debate also reveals distinctively different rhetorical strategies.

As the chart illustrates, McCain, to a far greater degree than Obama, references his opponent in his rhetoric (Senator Obama's, that he would, Senator Obama said, Obama doesn't, Obama's plan). At the same time, McCain uses phrases signaling determination (the point is, that we will, a long way), experience and knowledge (I have a, I know how, know how to, And I know), as well as leadership (take care of, I guarantee you).

Obama's most significant phrases when compared to John McCain, on the other hand, point to his disagreement (That's not, it's not true) and reference the failed efforts of the past administration (Over the last, last eight years, We haven't). Obama also projects confidence and a sense of direction in his rhetoric (We are going, Got to make, I think we, make sure that, to make sure). Consistent with his political message are also his references to what he considers a strategic mismanagement of the war on terror (focused on Iraq) and the need for an improved health care system. Interestingly enough, he also displays a significant usage of the phrase McCain is absolutely right when comparing his own views to that of his opponent, acknowledging the common ground between them on certain issues.





5. Country Collocations

a) Iraq

When looking at the significant collocations of the word Iraq in the rhetoric of both candidates, similar characteristics emerge.

The following chart shows that from a linguistic perspective John McCain has a much clearer message with regard to Iraq.




In contrast, Barack Obama's collocation to the word Iraq are far more comprehensive, illustrating wider connections to other countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan) as well as other related issues and strategic priorities (the situation of the troops, national security, energy).






b) Russia

The example of Russia reconfirms this interpretation. As the chart below indicates, John McCain communicates his interpretation of the U.S.-Russian relationship and the crisis in Georgia in very clear terms, focusing on the aggressive nature of Russia's intervention and the serious threat it poses for international political system.




Acknowledging McCain's interpretation Obama's rhetoric with regard to Russia is, yet again, more nuanced. Obama connects the problem to various other issues such as the role of China, the resurgence of Al Qaeda, energy dependence as well as the general, global national security threats the U.S. is facing.






6. Conclusion

In their first televised head-to-head debate, John McCain and Barack Obama underlined the sharp contrasts between them while expanding the political rhetoric they established on the campaign trail.

Whereas McCain continuously stressed his superior foreign policy experience and directly attacked Barack Obama for his views on Iraq and Russia in very clear political language, his opponent offered a more nuanced picture of international relations.

Elaborating on the connections between foreign policy and issues such as alternative energy and the nation's faltering economy, Obama sought to distance himself from what he considered the failed policies of the past by offering a more comprehensive foreign policy agenda.

All graphics can be downloaded at:    http://semtracks.com/politicaltracker/presskit_debate1/presskit.zip



author(s): js/mk/nb   date: 09/27/2008   title: "Experience vs. Judgment, Past vs. Future?"   textid/texts: 8/18
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