It is conventional political wisdom that in the final weeks of any election campaign both sides turn up both the heat and the rhetoric, either to solidify one candidate's lead or bring about a game changer for the campaign that is behind in the polls.

Accordingly, since the last presidential debate ten days ago, the electorate was able to witness several, well-publicized endorsements across party lines, allegations of socialism/communism as well as the introduction of previously unknown persona to the campaign trail, such as a bus tour dedicated to Joe the Plumber and comparisons to Batman and Robin.

With the news cycle constantly getting shorter, self-mutilation of supporters, clothing expenses and tensions within each camp have advanced as serious stories and discussion points for political pundits, replacing the (albeit occasional) thoughtful analysis of the candidates by the media (for exceptions see an early piece on Obama's Chicago background by Ryan Lizza, and Robert Draper's recent piece on John McCain's campaign strategies).


1. Word Clouds

When looking at the rhetoric of both campaigns since their last televised face-off on October 15, as is illustrated by the word cloud below, it is apparent that both candidates have concentrated on talking about their core political messages to sway especially independent voters in the final days of the race.

Vowing to fight for the American people and the victory of his own campaign, McCain continues to hit Obama on his comments to the by now infamous Joe Wurzelbacher on spreading the wealth as well as on taxes, spending, and big government. McCain portrays Obama as risky and dangerous for America, while stressing his own straight and strong leadership and innovative energy policy (drill, nuclear).

Obama, on the other hand, continues his strategy of associating John McCain with George W. Bush (same politics, afford) and putting his major focus on the economy (company, foreclosure, pay, loan) with a particular emphasis on the plight of the middle class (homeowner, rescue).

The consistency of Obama's rhetorical strategy ever since the beginning of his campaign is certainly remarkable, circling around his long-standing keyword of change as well as his political message of collectivity (together, we), the historic opportunity of his candidacy (moment) and his orientation toward the future (century, generation) (see SEMTRACKS analysis http://www.scharloth.com/cgi-bin/poltracker/poltracker_layout.pl?textid=1">#1 and http://www.scharloth.com/cgi-bin/poltracker/poltracker_layout.pl?textid=3">#3).



2. "It's the economy, stupid"

In the final stretch of the campaign, both candidates, however, mainly focus their rhetoric on the economy, although with a slightly different emphasis.

a) Small-Business Owner

For John McCain, the situation of the American worker and small business owner in the personalized form of Joe the Plumber and Ed the Dairyman has become symbolic for his economic message.

As the cluster below illustrates, McCain's message is predominantly a negative one, warning about sudden tax hikes by his opponent that would kill jobs and drive business overseas.

This way, McCain insists, Obama's tax and health care plans would not only prevent American small business owners from realizing their dream but also jeopardize American families and future generations (children, grandchildren).



b) Middle Class

The economic message of Barack Obama, on the other hand, is more positive and centers around the middle class in general. It underlines Obama's plans for a middle class tax cut in addition to the break for companies; in other words, a rescue plan that would provide relief for all Americans and help them to rebuild their crumbling financial portfolio.

At the same time, however, Obama uses his discussion of the burden on the middle class to talk about the plummeting market in general and his plans to inspire the creation of more jobs (million).

Interestingly enough, when discussing the economy, Obama also takes the opportunity to denounce the McCain campaign's launch of character attacks as out of touch with people's needs, distortions from the economic problems, arguing that it's time to turn the page on this kind of divisive campaigning since the people are the ones eventually losing because of this.



3. Conclusion

As the analysis shows, James Carville's dictum of "It's the economy, stupid" from the Clinton campaign of 1992 has not lost its urgency in the final stretch of this presidential campaigns.

Rather, the issue of the economy has turned the playing field from which both sides set out to differentiate themselves and push their political agenda in the remaining days of the race.